⛏️ MineTracker 360 · MINING PROJECT ANALYTICS 2.0

✔️ MET + Working capital · IRR/PBP · Heat Map · Monte Carlo · Operations · Diagram · Algorithm

📊 Model

🎲 Monte Carlo

📅 Operations

🏭 Plan/actual controlling

💰 Debt

🎯 Scenarios

📐 Diagram

📖 Algorithm

📊 Base

⚠️ Stress

🚀 Optimum

💰 $/oz

💱 ₽/$

🏭 Operational

💰 Gold price ($/oz)2150

💱 USD/RUB rate90.0

⛏️ Ore (k t/year)2700

📏 Grade (g/t)1.95

🔁 Recovery (%)86.0

📦 Strip ratio (t/t)3.4

💰 Costs (in rubles)

⛽ Mining (₽/t ore)1250

🏭 Processing (₽/t)980

🏢 G&A (₽/t)420

🗑️ Stripping (₽/t waste)190

📊 Tax settings new

Loss carry-forward

🏗️ CAPEX allocation new

Year -2 (% of CAPEX)30

Year -1 (% of CAPEX)50

Year 0 (% of CAPEX)20

Total: 100% ✓

📈 Inflation new

Annual RUB inflation (%)5.0

🧱 Capital and taxes (basic)

🏗️ Initial CAPEX ($M)320

🔧 Sustaining ($/t ore)32.0

📉 Discount rate %8.5

💰 MET (% of revenue)6.0

🔄 Working capital (% of revenue)5.0

📉 Peak debt: 0 M$

🏅 AISC: 0 $/oz

📈 NPV: 0 M$

📊 IRR: 0%

⏱️ Payback period: 0 years

Production (oz)0K

Revenue Y10$M

AISC0$/oz

NPV0$M

📈 Cumulative cash flow + revenue

🥧 AISC components

🔥 Heat Map: NPV($M) as price and grade vary

🌀 Tornado (impact on NPV)

Metric	$M	$/oz

* MET + 25% tax + working capital + new features

🎲 Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 scenarios)

Done

📊 How to read the histogram

Horizontal axis — possible NPV values ($M)
Vertical axis — how many times each value occurred
The taller the bar — the more likely this result is
🔴 Red zone — negative NPV (unprofitable scenarios)
🟢 Green zone — positive NPV (profitable scenarios)

Simulation results:

📊 Average NPV (expected value): 0 M$

📉 Median (50% of scenarios better/worse): 0 M$

📈 Standard deviation (risk/volatility): 0 M$

✅ Probability of success (NPV > 0): 0%

⚠️ VaR (5%) (worst case at 95% probability): 0 M$

📌 What do these figures mean?

Mean — the average result across all scenarios.
Median — the median value (more robust to outliers).
Std Dev — shows the spread of results (the larger, the riskier).
VaR 5% — in 95% of cases the result will be better than this value.

🎯 How it works

The simulation varies three key parameters simultaneously:
• Gold price — random deviation of ±20% from current
• Grade — random deviation of ±15% from current
• Recovery — random deviation of ±5% from current

NPV is calculated for each combination. After 10,000 iterations we obtain the probability distribution of all possible outcomes.

📅 Monthly operational analysis Annual parameters: $2150/oz, 1.95 g/t, 2700 000 t

Adjust by month for seasonality analysis

Total ore

000 t

Avg. grade

0.00

g/t

Total oz

Revenue

📊 Output and grade by month

💰 Revenue by month

Month	Ore 000 t	Grade g/t	Price $/oz	Ounces K	Revenue $M	Accumulated $M

📌 Seasonality analysis

⚡ Maximum output:

📉 Minimum grade:

💰 Peak revenue:

📊 Extended analytics new

Average price

$/oz

Coeff. of variation

Max drawdown

Volatility

📈 Seasonality trends

• Q1: 0%

• Q2: 0%

• Q3: 0%

• Q4: 0%

🔮 Forecast for next year

💰 Revenue: 0 M$

⛏️ Production: 0 K oz

📈 Growth: 0%

🏭 Operational controlling plan/actual analysis

Plan attainment (ore)

0 %

0 / 0 000 t

Plan attainment (gold)

0 %

0 / 0 K oz

Cost variance

0 %

$0 / $0

Efficiency (OEE)

0 %

▼ by 3%

Production

Cost

Efficiency

✏️ Enter actuals

⛏️ Ore output (k t)

📅 Plan: 0 📊 Actual: 0 📈 Variance: 0%

📏 Grade (g/t)

📅 Plan: 0 📊 Actual: 0 📈 Variance: 0%

📅 Monthly plan/actual

Month	Plan (000 t)	Actual (000 t)	%	Plan (g/t)	Actual (g/t)	%

💰 Cost analysis

Mining

$0/t

+5% vs. plan

Processing

$0/t

-2% vs. plan

Waste stripping

$0/t

+12% vs. plan

⚙️ OEE by site

⏱️ Downtime analysis

✏️ Manual entry of actual data

Enter actual values by month. After entering, click "Save".

Month	Actual output (k t)	Actual grade (g/t)	Actual price ($/oz)

📥 Actual data: not loaded

🎯 Scenario comparison up to 5 options

📊 Comparison of cash flows by year

📋 Detailed comparison

Metric	Current	Scen.1	Scen.2	Scen.3	Scen.4	Scen.5

📐 Detailed calculation diagram

Full description of all formulas and model relationships (current for version 2.0)

⛏️ Block 1. Production program

Input parameters:

Qore — annual ore output (k t) slider
g — gold grade (g/t) slider
R — recovery rate (%) slider
SR — strip ratio (t/t) slider

Calculation formulas:

Qwaste = Qore × SR
Qgold_g = Qore × 1000 × g × R/100
Qgold_oz = Qgold_g / 31.1035

* 31.1035 g = 1 troy ounce

💱 Block 2. Currency conversion

PAu — gold price ($/oz) slider
FX — USD/RUB rate slider

RevenueUSD = Qgold_oz × PAu
CostUSD = CostRUB / FX

* All costs are converted to USD for a single calculation currency

🏭 Block 3. Operating costs inflation

Mining — mining (₽/t ore) slider
Processing — processing (₽/t ore) slider
G&A — G&A (₽/t ore) slider
StripCost — stripping (₽/t waste rock) slider
i — annual inflation (%) slider

OPEX_y = [Qore × (Mining + Processing + G&A) + Qwaste × StripCost] / FX × (1 + i)^(y-1)

* Inflation is applied annually to all ruble-denominated costs

🏗️ Block 4. Capital expenditures distribution

Initial CAPEX — initial investment ($M) slider
Sustaining CAPEX — sustaining ($/t ore) slider
Distribution — % by years -2, -1, 0 sliders

CAPEX_y2 = InitCAPEX × p2%
CAPEX_y1 = InitCAPEX × p1%
CAPEX_y0 = InitCAPEX × p0%
SustCAPEX = Qore × SustRate
Depreciation = InitCAPEX / 10

✅ Sum check: p2% + p1% + p0% = 100%

💰 Block 5. Taxation loss carryforward

MET — % of revenue slider
Income tax — 25% (fixed)
Loss Carry-Forward — loss carryforward flag

MET = Revenue × MET%
EBIT = Revenue − OPEX − Depreciation − MET
Taxable = max(0, EBIT − LossCF)
Tax = Taxable × 25%
LossCF_next = max(0, LossCF + min(0, EBIT))

🔄 Block 6. Working capital

WC% — % of next year's revenue slider

WC_t = Revenue_(t+1) × WC%
ΔWC_t = WC_t − WC_(t-1)

📊 Block 7. Cash flows

FCF — free cash flow
Cumulative FCF — accumulated cash flow
Peak Debt — maximum shortfall

FCF = Revenue − OPEX − SustCAPEX − MET − Tax − ΔWC
Cumulative_t = Cumulative_(t-1) + FCF_t
Peak Debt = |min(Cumulative)|

📈 Block 8. Performance metrics

NPV — net present value
IRR — internal rate of return
PBP — payback period
AISC — all-in sustaining cost

NPV = Σ(FCF_t / (1+r)^t) (with discounted investment)
IRR = r: NPV(r) = 0
PBP = t, where Cumulative_t ≥ 0
AISC = (OPEX + SustCAPEX) / Qgold_oz

🎯 Block 9. Sensitivity analysis

Tornado — impact of 6 factors
Heat Map — price × grade (gradient)
Monte Carlo — 10,000 scenarios

Tornado: ΔNPV at ±10% of the factor
Heat Map: NPV(price, grade) with a color scale
Monte Carlo: price∼U(±20%), grade∼U(±15%), rec∼U(±5%)

🧩 Block 10. Additional modules

Operations — monthly analysis
Controlling — plan/actual analysis
Debt — leverage
Scenarios — comparison of up to 5 variants

The modules are independent and use the model's data
Synchronization via localStorage

📌 Legend

new — feature added in version 2.0

slider — adjustable parameter in the left panel

base — standard model function

📖 Detailed algorithm description

Step-by-step execution of the calculations from data entry to final metrics (current for version 2.0)

Step 1. Initialization and loading
On page load, the model:
- Loads the saved state from localStorage
- Sets the initial slider values
- Creates charts (Chart.js)
- Prepares the operations module and the analytics modules
Step 2. Parameter entry
The user changes values via:
- Sliders — smooth adjustment with visual feedback
- Numeric fields — precise entry via keyboard
- Scenarios — base/stress/optimistic (preset configurations)
- Checkboxes — enabling/disabling features (loss carry-forward)
All elements are synced: moving the slider updates the numeric field and vice versa
Step 3. Production calculation (updateAll function)
On every change, the following is called updateAll(), which:
1. Reads the current values of all parameters
2. Calculates annual ore output in tons: tons_kg = tonsInp.value * 1000
3. Calculates the amount of gold in grams: goldGrams = tons_kg * grade * (recovery/100)
4. Converts to ounces: goldOz = goldGrams / 31.1035
5. Calculates revenue: revenueUSD = goldOz * goldPrice
Step 4. Operating cost calculation with inflation
For each year y (1..10):

inflationFactor = (1 + inflation/100)^(y-1)
miningUSD = (miningRub * inflationFactor) / currency
procUSD = (procRub * inflationFactor) / currency
gaUSD = (gaRub * inflationFactor) / currency
stripUSD = (stripCostRub * inflationFactor) / currency
opexUSD = tons_kg * (miningUSD + procUSD + gaUSD) + (tons_kg * stripRatio * stripUSD)
Step 5. Capital expenditure calculation
Initial CAPEX is allocated across three years:

capexY2 = -initCapex * (capexY2.value/100) * 1e6
capexY1 = -initCapex * (capexY1.value/100) * 1e6
capexY0 = -initCapex * (capexY0.value/100) * 1e6

Sustaining CAPEX: sustCapexUSD = sustCapexPerTon * tons_kg

Depreciation: depreciation = initCapex / 10 (straight-line over 10 years)
Step 6. Tax calculation (with loss carry-forward)
For each year of operation:
1. MET: metTax = revenueUSD * (metTax.value/100)
2. EBIT: ebit = revenueUSD - opexUSD - depreciation - metTax
3. If loss carry-forward is enabled:
  - If ebit > 0: tax = max(0, ebit - accumulatedLoss) × 25%
  - If ebit < 0: the loss is added to accumulatedLoss
4. If loss carry-forward is disabled:
  - tax = ebit > 0 ? ebit × 0.25 : 0
Step 7. Working capital
Calculated as a percentage of next year's revenue:

WC_required(y) = revenueUSD(y+1) × (wcPct/100) (for y=1..9)
WC_required(10) = 0
deltaWC(y) = WC_required(y) - WC_required(y-1)
Step 8. Building the cash flows
The cashflows array holds 13 elements (3 years of investment + 10 years of operation):

cashflows[0] = capexY2 (year -2)
cashflows[1] = capexY1 (year -1)
cashflows[2] = capexY0 (year 0)
cashflows[3..12] = revenueUSD - opexUSD - sustCapexUSD - metTax - tax - deltaWC

Cumulative cash flow is calculated by running summation.
Step 9. Performance metrics calculation
- NPV: discounting all cashflows to year 0, accounting for investment in years -2 and -1
- IRR: numerical solution of the equation NPV=0 by Newton's method
- PBP: linear interpolation between the year with negative and positive cumulative cash flow
- AISC: (opexUSD + sustCapexUSD) / goldOz
- Peak debt: maximum negative cumulative cash flow
Step 10. Updating the interface
After the calculations, the following are updated:
- KPI cards (output, revenue, AISC, NPV)
- Table detailing the first year
- AISC legend with percentages
- Charts (line and doughnut)
- Heat Map with gradient fill
Step 11. Operations module and controlling
Separate, independent modules that:
- Allow editing of monthly data
- Calculate the accumulated totals
- Build charts for output, grade, and revenue
- Run plan/actual analysis with visualization
Step 12. Saving the state
On every change of parameters:
- All current values are saved to localStorage
- On page reload, the state is restored
- Button "Reset" clears the saved data
Step 13. Analytics modules
Additional analysis capabilities:
- Monte Carlo — probabilistic modeling with explanations
- Debt — assessment of the impact of leverage
- Scenarios — saving and comparing variants
- Tornado — sensitivity analysis

✅ All model functions (31 total)

Category	Functions
Base	Ore output · Grade · Recovery · Strip ratio · Gold price · USD/RUB rate
Costs	Mining · Processing · G&A · Stripping
Capital	Initial CAPEX · Sustaining CAPEX · Discount rate · CAPEX allocation by year
Taxes	MET · 25% profit tax · Loss carry-forward
Working capital	Working capital · Inflation
Metrics	NPV · IRR · PBP · AISC · Peak debt · Output (ounces) · Revenue
Analytics	Tornado · Heat Map (gradient) · Monte Carlo · Monthly analysis
Add-on modules	Controlling · Debt · Scenarios · Export to Excel
Service	3 scenarios · State saving · Reset

* All modules are decoupled from the core and run independently

⛏️ MineTracker 360 · MINING PROJECT ANALYTICS 2.0

🏭 Operational

💰 Costs (in rubles)

📊 Tax settings new

🏗️ CAPEX allocation new

📈 Inflation new

🧱 Capital and taxes (basic)

🎲 Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 scenarios)

📊 How to read the histogram

Simulation results:

📌 What do these figures mean?

🎯 How it works

📅 Monthly operational analysis Annual parameters: $2150/oz, 1.95 g/t, 2700 000 t

📌 Seasonality analysis

📊 Extended analytics new

🏭 Operational controlling plan/actual analysis

⛏️ Ore output (k t)

📏 Grade (g/t)

📅 Monthly plan/actual

💰 Cost analysis

⚙️ OEE by site

⏱️ Downtime analysis

✏️ Manual entry of actual data

💰 Leverage

🎯 Scenario comparison up to 5 options

❓ How to work with scenarios

📐 Detailed calculation diagram

⛏️ Block 1. Production program

💱 Block 2. Currency conversion

🏭 Block 3. Operating costs inflation

🏗️ Block 4. Capital expenditures distribution

💰 Block 5. Taxation loss carryforward

🔄 Block 6. Working capital

📊 Block 7. Cash flows

📈 Block 8. Performance metrics

🎯 Block 9. Sensitivity analysis

🧩 Block 10. Additional modules

📌 Legend

📖 Detailed algorithm description

✅ All model functions (31 total)

📄 Operations report