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Bayesian inference for agent-based models with 90% fewer simulations
US & West ·
The DF-NPE method combines learned time-series summaries with two conditional normalizing flows for synthetic-data generation and posterior estimation. It supplements direct simulations with synthetic training pairs and supports pooled and ordered training strategies. In two settings of the Brock-Hommes asset-pricing model it cuts direct simulations by 90% while achieving lower posterior discrepancy and runtime.
Why it matters
It lowers the computational cost of calibrating agent-based models, making them more practical for forecasting and scenario analysis in economics.
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arXiv:2610.32988v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Social media bots are often portrayed as malicious automations to be detected and removed, but automation on social media platforms encompasses a wide spectrum of roles, behaviors, and rhetorical strategies that can shape online discourse in both…
Agent-based models in economics and social sciences represent heterogeneous behavior and interactions through simulations, while their likelihood is often intractable for parameter estimation. The work examines likelihood-free neural inference, notably neural posterior estimation with normalizing flows providing amortized Bayesian inference. It notes that a pre-trained estimator may become inaccurate when the target task changes and discusses adapting such estimators.
