ModellingUS & West
Conditions for Social Trajectory Collapse: Agent-Based Simulation of Trajectory Distributions
Agent-based simulation is used to study trajectory diversity, the variety of people's recurring activity orientations toward neighborhoods, urban centers and wider networks. The model maps 2010 population shares to 2026 distributions for China, Russia, Japan, the UK and the US and simulates change to 2036, finding a 52.6-79.0% decline in trajectory diversity. The largest increases in the most common trajectory share occur in Russia and Japan; costs rise throughout, while welfare falls in the Russian and Japanese cases and rises in the other three.